MICHAEL Howard's leadership of the Tories has prompted a Conservative party surge in Scotland at the direct expense of the Liberal Democrats in voting intentions for Westminster and Holyrood.

The latest monthly NFO System Three poll for The Herald clearly suggests the Howard effect on Tories north of the border has been hugely positive for his party.

The Scottish Tories have jumped four points to 17% in Westminster voting intentions - an increase mirrored exactly in first-vote intentions for

Holyrood.

Their Holyrood share of the first vote is now 15%, up from 11%, their highest showing since System Three began polling both votes in 1998.

When allowance is made for the familiar habit of Scottish Tory voters being the least reluctant to confide with pollsters but the most eager to turn out, the news could be even better for the Tories north of the border, with support perhaps touching more than 20%.

The party, which won back Galloway and Upper Nithsdale in the last general election, will now be hoping to make further gains at the next general election, probably less than two years away.

Mr Howard's succession to the deposed Iain Duncan Smith was the major significant party political event in the period since System Three polled in late October.

It seems to have encouraged a marked swing back from the LibDems to the Tories just when the LibDems in England were talking excitedly about possibly becoming the next official

opposition in the Commons.

The news will send a warning to Charles Kennedy, the UK leader of the LibDems, who had been basking in new-found respect while Mr Duncan Smith fought for his political life.

For the other parties, except the Greens, the result is largely neutral. Labour at Westminster is down only a point to 42%, despite Tony Blair's continuing embarrassment over university top-up fees in England.

This leaves Labour still comfortably ahead of the becalmed SNP, which is up 2% to 24%. Both findings are within the margin of error of 3% up or down.

If the nascent revival of Tory fortunes becomes a trend, the party will soon be looking expectantly towards the European elections next June.

On these figures, the Tories could reasonably hope at least to hold their two existing seats - they only narrowly won the second last time - after Scotland's representation in the Strasbourg parliament is cut from eight to seven to take account of EU enlargement.

In Holyrood first-vote intentions, the Tories are up four points to 15% and Labour is unchanged on 35%, while the SNP has moved up one point to 30%. In second voting, Labour and the SNP are tied on 28%, wiping out last month's SNP lead.

However, the vagaries of the additional member voting system for Holyrood indicate little change in the balance of power in Edinburgh.

When System Three's findings are translated by the independent Electoral Reform Ballot Services to notional seats in the Holyrood chamber, the Tories would have only 15 - three less than they won in May - while Labour would keep its 50 and the LibDems would gain one through the proportional representation system to emerge with 18 MSPs.

The SNP would be back to 35 - its total in 1999 - and the major losers would be the Greens, who would be down to two from seven. Tommy Sheridan's Socialists would take seven seats, a gain of one, and there would be only two independents instead of the present four.

This would leave a third consecutive Labour-LibDem governing coalition as the most likely outcome.

The West Lothian question

How and why the West Lothian question is creating tension at Westminster

Foundation hospitals

Some 44 Scottish Labour MPs were accused of bailing Tony Blair out over the English-only policy as his 161 majority was cut to just 17 last month. Nationalists voted on the issue, claiming the creation of foundation hospitals in England, with greater access to private finance, would eventually impact on state funding for health in England and, through the Barnett Formula, squeeze publicly-funded health spending in Scotland too.

University tuition fees

The vote is next month but with about 160 Labour rebels another tight vote is expected with potentially Scottish Labour MPs making the difference. Eighty-one MPs need to vote against Tony Blair's plan - to allow English colleges to charge up to (pounds) 3000 a year per student - for the flagship policy to fall. Again, the argument is that the English-only law will have a knock-on effect in Scotland as, with extra money, universities in England will be able to bleed resources from north of the border.

Fox hunting in England

Scottish MPs voted on this, seeing it as their right as UK parliamentarians even though the potential impact was England-only. Tony Blair has promised to resolve the matter in this parliament but the crunch is not likely to come in the Commons, where most MPs are in favour of a total ban, but in the Lords. The government could use the Parliament Act to push the ban through if the Lords blocked it again.

Faith schools in England

In February 2002, government plans to promote more faith schools south of the border survived a rebellion of 45 Labour back benchers, who, together with a clutch of opposition MPs, included Scots. The West Lothian question was not much of an issue in this case as the government majority was overwhelming.