ELIMINATING waits of longer than 36 weeks for orthopaedic treatment for patients in Gwent is unlikely to be achieved until well into 2016/17.

Proposals to cut a large backlog of such waits, included in Aneurin Bevan University Health Board’s plan, show that by the end of 2015/16 (March 31 next year), there could still be almost 500 Gwent orthopaedic patients who by then will have waited more than 36 weeks.

And it is not specific on when during 2016/17 the target of having no-one waiting more than 36 weeks will be reached.

Having large numbers of orthopaedic patients waiting longer than 36 weeks is not a problem confined to Gwent’s health board, and it is an issue that has proved particularly difficult to contain as demand has soared while NHS budgets have tightened.

The latest figures show that by the end of February, 1,679 patients had waited more than 36 weeks for orthopaedic treatment in Gwent.

Scores of orthopaedic patients from Gwent have opted to have their treatment over the border in Bristol in recent months as part of a health board-run programme to begin to tackle the backlog.

Such a measure is likely to be required again during 2015/16, as a capacity assessment in the medium term plan indicates a substantial shortfall in Gwent’s hospitals based on recurrent demand.

That assessment put demand at almost 9,800 treatments but capacity at a little over 6,000 treatments. Arthroplasty (hip reconstruction) accounts for more than half of that shortfall.

There is also a shortfall in outpatient demand (14,638 appointments) compared to capacity (11,539), with spine and other back problems accounting for the largest portion of that capacity gap.

A plan to address the shortfalls and the issue of long waits involves a mixture of reducing demand and increasing capacity.

In the longer term - into next year and beyond - introducing a seven-days-a-week service in orthopaedic surgery is seen as a way of boosting capacity, allied to increasing the number of consultants.

Improving efficiency and providing alternative treatment pathways where appropriate, will also be key to managing demand.

It is estimated that next year, instead of a treatments capacity gap of 478 cases, there could be an extra 908 treatment slots available, subject to all the plan’s elements being delivered.