THE probability is that by tea-time tonight Partick Thistle will be in second-bottom place in the second division and favourites to accompany Forfar for the drop into Scottish football's basement.
The elements in the equation which could prevent that are that East Fife, currently in the unwanted ninth place on goal difference, lose at home to Arbroath, or that Thistle live up to their traditional label of the great unpredictables by taking something from their visit to second-top Inverness Caley Thistle.
Only a year or two ago it would have been difficult to imagine the Jags visiting Inverness as underdogs and with the prospect of starting next season two divisions below the newcomers to the Scottish League.
Tradition is not worth a great deal in football and, even with promotion assured, Inverness will have no sympathy for the plight of John Lambie's men. The Highland team have their own ambitions and, with a visit to top-of-the-table Livingston a week today as a probable title decider, it is mandatory that they collect full points this afternoon.
They are two points adrift of the leaders but have a better goal difference, by three, in the event that there is a tie on points at the end of the day.
Apart from any other considerations, the bare facts are that Inverness have yet to be beaten at home this season, whereas Partick are the lowest-scoring away team in the division with just 14 goals on their travels.
Partick's Alan Archibald, sent off last week in the 3-0 defeat at Stirling, is automatically suspended for today's visit to the Highlands.
The Jags may yet be saved by the misfortunes of others. No fewer than six teams are involved in the struggle to avoid relegation, with just a bit of pressure on East Fife, even after last week's victory which doomed Forfar to their almost customary change of division each season.
The Fifers host Arbroath, who are only two points better off, in the day's only head-to-head between teams in relegation trouble.
Stirling Albion are only a point above the drop zone, even after last week's victory over Thistle, and although they have the advantage - like Fife and Queen of the South - that two of their three remaining games are at home, one of these is the daunting task of entertaining Livingston this afternoon.
That visit brings Livvy coach Ray Stewart back to Forthbank, where he was assistant to Kevin Drinkell until last season and there will be some tea and sympathy in the board room after the match, regardless of how it unfolds.
Albion have suffered eight home defeats this season and, strangely, the cup conquerors of Premier League-bound Hibs could be closer to a drop to the basement by tea-time if results elsewhere are unfriendly.
Queen of the South are two points above ninth place and have a bit of momentum, a good goal difference, and their visitors are Clyde, whose sense of purpose seems to have disappeared since it became clear that they were destined to finish in third place.
Similarly, Alloa might hope to be meeting motiveless opponents when they visit the doomed Forfar. The Wasps have a three-point cushion above the relegation zone and have a healthy goal difference thanks to their high-scoring exploits earlier in the campaign.
When Terry Christie moved as manager from Stenhousemuir to Alloa, it was thought that he would end the season at least on a par with his former club but it is not inconceivable that he could be looking upwards at the Warriors from the autumn.
His assistant, the evergreen Graeme Armstrong, inherited a team who were struggling to get back into the promotion race but now they find themselves five points clear of third-placed Brechin with only nine points left to be won.
'Muir are hosts to Dumbarton, who are seven points back and needing a win to keep their slim hope alive.
Armstrong has observed that his team face a series of cup finals - two of which they have won with late, late shows - and another success story today could give them an instant return to the second division.
Brechin will be Dumbarton supporters today but they also must win their own game away to Queen's Park.
Champions Ross County will try to regain the winning habit at lowly Montrose while Albion Rovers entertain Berwick, and East Stirlingshire will hope to finish in the top half of the table if they can beat visiting Cowdenbeath, favourites for the wooden spoon.
q Diehard's Diary - Page 5
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