THERE was no great rush yesterday by Invergordon shareholders to sell
their shares in the stock market or accept American-owned Whyte &
Mackay's offer of 275p cash a share which closes at lunchtime today.
By breakfast time the Whyte & Mackay camp had reported that purchases
and acceptances totalled 38.6%, and by 4.30 when the stock market closed
this had crept up to 41.5%, made up of 39.2% purchases and 2.3%
acceptances.
A close finish is still expected to the #350m takeover battle, which
has now entered its thirteenth week, but drinks analysts at County
NatWest WoodMac concluded that unless one of the remaining major
institutional shareholders in Invergordon decided at the last minute to
support Whyte & Mackay, the bid looked likely to fail, ''albeit by a
fine margin''.
However, the stockbrokers added that in reality Glasgow-based Whyte &
Mackay had won with victory only being delayed by a year.
''Over the next 12 months the group can add 2% to its holding, block
any major corporate or expansion plans Invergordon may have, and prepare
the ground with the necessary institutions to secure future victory.''
At Charterhouse Tilney, Alan Gray reckons Whyte & Mackay may have to
return with a higher bid to win control at a later date.
This, of course, would justify the institutions and other shareholders
who have held out against an offer which values Invergordon at 16.7
times prospective earnings and is described by the County NatWest team
as ''a cheap nip indeed''.
If the offer lapsed, much would depend on the final tally of share
purchases made by Whyte & Mackay. For a start this would indicate how
quickly it could obtain creeping control by buying shares in the market
at the rate of 2% a year.
So far American Brands, Whyte & Mackay's parent, has splashed out the
better part of #140m in buying Invergordon shares in the market, and the
costs of holding such a large investment would be extremely high.
Last night, with Whyte & Mackay having left themselves with quite a
lot to do on the final morning before the offer closes, the Invergordon
camp said: ''We cannot anticipate the final outcome. But we remain
quietly confident this evening.''
Whyte & Mackay were also confident that a rush of institutions taking
the cash on offer at the last minute to preserve their anonymity would
deliver them victory.
A row broke out over the purchase late on Monday afternoon of 1.1
million shares in Invergordon by BZW, Invergordon's brokers, and Robert
Fleming, its merchant bankers.
The Whyte & Mackay camp claimed the shares came from employee
shareholders and were the first purchases of Invergordon shares since
the first day of the increased offer which had not been made by them.
A Fleming official said BZW had bought 500,000 shares and Fleming
itself 640,000 shares for their own books, but would not elaborate
further on the deal.
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