Where the Dragons must shine in derby against the Scarlets

The former Ospreys and Bristol coach will be part of the Premier Sports commentary team at Rodney Parade tomorrow for the first of the festive derbies (kick-off 5.15pm).

The Dragons upset the odds to beat the Scarlets at Judgement Day last season and Holley believes their encouraging start to the campaign under Dean Ryan, who was appointed as Bernard Jackman's successor in the summer, could lead to a repeat.

"I have generally been impressed with the Dragons, although I was really disappointed with them in the defeat against Zebre because they had been making strides," he said.

"I commentated on the Glasgow game and that was a very impressive win, while the Dragons are also going well in Europe.

"They have improved with pretty much the squad that was there, so that just goes to show what an experienced guy like Dean can do.

"He has got them organised and believing in themselves. I've tipped them to win this weekend, so that's probably put the hoodoo on them!"

Where does Holley believe the game will be won and lost…

HALF-BACKS

Captain Rhodri Williams and Sam Davies have joined forces in six out of seven league fixtures for the Dragons and managed the game brilliantly in victory against Worcester last weekend.

They will be going up against Wales scrum-half Gareth Davies and Dan Jones, who is picked ahead of former Dragon Angus O'Brien.

"Sam has made a big difference to the Dragons," said Holley. "He controls a game and can drive a team forward.

"He is one of the best that I have worked with and is an attacking player who is happy to get on the move, which means that the other boys can play off him.

"Rhodri is a good tactical player and a nuggety scrum-half, a kicking 9 who knows when to take the pressure off the 10.

"They are both good at the nuts and bolts; if the half-backs go well then the Dragons can get territory and a foothold in the game."

GRUNT UP FRONT

The Dragons got the better of Worcester in the final quarter of last weekend's European Challenge Cup win to edge a tense tussle in Newport.

Their tight game needs to stand firm again versus an all-international Scarlets tight five.

Holley said: "Always with the Dragons it's about how they perform in the forwards – can they stop the driving maul, can they score from the driving maul? Can they get parity at the scrum?

"I like the fact that they have gone loaded in the back row with (Wales lock) Cory Hill, because that is one area that they really need to match the Scarlets.

"The Scarlets have gone with the big three in the front row – Wyn Jones, Ken Owens and Samson Lee – so that's clearly an area where they will want dominance.

"I also like that the Dragons have picked Taine Basham in the back because it would have been easy to go with someone more experienced. He's someone who plays above his age and scores tries and has big moments."

DANGERMAN OUT WIDE

Holley points to winger Johnny McNicholl as the main threat in the Scarlets back line.

The speedster has scored 26 tries in 57 PRO14 fixtures since heading to Llanelli from the Crusaders with his exploits earning a first Wales appearance against the Barbarians last month, when he crossed for a try at Principality Stadium.

"McNicholl is a big, quick man who makes the most metres, he makes the most line breaks, he offloads, he is good in the air and breaks out of defence," said Holley.

"Take those factors out of the game and the Scarlets need to find those elements from someone else.

"You don't want to pin it on one man but if you can stop McNicholl then you go a long way towards stopping the Scarlets.

"He is massive for them, while you have to be disciplined with Leigh Halfpenny kicking at goal."

Holley is part of the Premier Sports team bringing live coverage of the first Welsh festive derby of the season as Dragons take on Scarlets at a packed Rodney Parade (Premier Sports 2, today from 5pm).

Then join Ross Harries, Lauren Jenkins, Eddie Butler, Shane Williams, Scott Baldwin and Rhys Williams who will be live from the Liberty Stadium for coverage of Ospreys v Cardiff Blues (Premier Sports 2 from 7.20pm).

Premier Sports, is the home of the Guinness PRO14 in the UK and is showing all 152 games from the Guinness PRO14 this season. Rugby fans can subscribe on Sky or the Premier Sports Player. Visit premiersports.com to sign up to see all the live action. Premier Sports customers can now enjoy an even bigger package of great live sports coverage for just £99 per year on Sky or £89 on the Premier Player including La Liga, Serie A, Scottish Cup football, Eredivisie, MLS, NASCAR and NHL.